Global trade poised for a record-breaking 2025

A report published by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that global trade in goods and services continued to grow through the second half of 2025. If projections hold, UNCTAD predicts that global trade this year will exceed USD35 trillion for the first time – an increase of about USD2.2 trillion, or around 7%, compared with 2024.

This is welcome news to the U-Freight Group as our portfolio of multimodal freight and logistics services helps support the supply chains that underpin visible global trade.

UNCTAD believes trade in goods will account for about USD1.5 trillion of the rise, while services are set to grow by roughly USD750 billion, nearly 9%. It expects growth to remain positive in the fourth quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.

Looking ahead, momentum is expected to weaken in 2026. Slower global growth, rising debt, higher trade costs and continued uncertainty are likely to weigh on trade flows.

UNCTAD also said that friendshoring and nearshoring strengthened again in the third quarter, with both indicators rising toward their 2021 long-term averages – a reversal from the declines seen earlier in the year. Friendshoring refers to trade shifting toward politically aligned partners, while nearshoring reflects a shift toward geographically closer ones.

Trade concentration among the largest economies also increased, signalling that a growing share of trade is flowing through a smaller group of major players.

You can read more about key regional and sectoral trends between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, as well as trends across various sectors, by visiting the following website: https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-december-2025-global-trade-poised-record-breaking-2025-flows

NB: The above us based on UNCTADstat; UNCTAD estimates based on national statistics.

For more information about the U-Freight Group’s global freight forwarding and logistics services that underpin global trade, please visit the relevant pages of this website or contact your local office, details of which can be seen here: https://ufreight.com/locations