Mixed performance across air freight market in 2025

With our strong presence in the expedited international airfreight sector, the U-Freight Group notes that Transport Intelligence reports that the air cargo industry has shown uneven trends this year, with strong growth on European and intra-Asia routes but disruption from tariffs, labour disputes, weather and capacity shortages elsewhere.

Tariff changes and the end of the de minimis exemption have shifted sourcing toward Southeast Asia, which continues to absorb volumes once concentrated in China. The analyst said this rebalancing is reshaping freight flows across the region.

Demand has been muted in the fourth quarter as shippers frontloaded inventory to avoid delays. Still, perishables and semiconductors are seeing robust growth, supported by global investment in AI infrastructure. Forwarders are adding charter flights from semiconductor hubs to handle sensitive cargo.

Improving ocean schedule reliability is also influencing logistics strategies, with some shippers switching to sea freight where possible. Oversupply remains a challenge, with bellyhold capacity rising on European and Middle Eastern routes, putting downward pressure on rates.

Freighter availability continues to tighten, but utilisation is expected to remain strong for time-sensitive and high-value goods. Airlines may increasingly target underserved markets in Latin America, Southeast Asia and the Indian Subcontinent.

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