New Houthi attacks dampen optimism of significant return to Red Sea transits

Any thought that the risk was easing to the point a return of a significant number of container shipping services through the Suez Canal route in the near future has vanished following two attacks on ships in recent days, including one that killed several seafarers.

That is interesting news for the U-Freight Group with our comprehensive portfolio of international container shipping services for both LCL and FCL import and export cargoes; and our strong presence in trades between Europe and the Far East, South East Asia / Indian sub-continent, which are currently seeing sailings diverted around southern Africa.

With no attacks on shipping off the Yemeni coast since December — that is, until two strikes over the past three days — a feeling was taking hold among some ocean carriers that the threat posed by Houthi militants was greatly diminished.

And as the threat diminished it would become more difficult for carriers to justify the diversions around southern Africa, which for the past 18 months have absorbed an estimated 10% of global capacity, extending transit times and putting carriers in a stronger position to absorb an influx of new capacity.

The dynamic in the Red Sea has changed materially as compared to expectations roughly a month ago in which there had been a growing view that Red Sea transits would start to pick up following the US-Houthi agreement and the long period in which merchant ships had not been attacked.

The most recent Houthi attacks … allow them to demonstrate that, unlike Iran and its other proxy groups in the region, they remain undeterred by the threat of US or Israeli military confrontation.

The original spark for Houthi attacks on shipping — Israeli operations in Gaza — remains a core rationale for their strikes.

Another impact of the latest Houthi attacks is that the insurance cost of shipping goods through the Red Sea has more than doubled in the last week.

War risk premiums have risen to around 0.7% of the value of a ship, from around 0.3% last week before the latest attacks took place, sources familiar with the matter said, with some underwriters pausing cover for some voyages.

Rates for a typical seven-day voyage period, which are set by individual underwriters, have been quoted this week at up to 1%, matching the peak level in 2024 when there were daily attacks. This adds hundreds of thousands of dollars in further costs for every shipment.

For more information about our ocean freight forwarding and logistics services, please visit the relevant pages of this website, or contact your local office, which can be seen here: https://ufreight.com/locations