Assuming a significant increase in recycling of older ships and a reduction in average sailing speeds, BIMCO forecasts that average market conditions in 2026 will be like those in 2025 but 2027 could see slightly weaker market conditions.
This makes interesting reading for the U-Freight group with our strong presence in the global container shipping arena.
BIMCO is forecasting ship demand growth of 2.5%-3.5% in both 2026 and 2027 while supply is estimated to grow 3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027.
The return to normal Red Sea and Suez Canal routings in the not-too-distant future, however, seems increasingly likely, adds BIMCO in its December ‘Container Shipping Market Overview and Outlook’, which could result in a 10% reduction in ship demand.
We understand that starting in January, CMA CGM’s INDAMEX service will fully return to the Suez Canal while the MEX service will use the Suez Canal on the back-haul leg from Europe to Asia. If these changes are successful, other carriers may slowly begin to change services back to the Suez Canal.
North American import container volumes are expected to contract 3% in 2025.
BIMCO also expects to see negative growth rates in the first half of 2026 before the market returns to growth in the second half of the year. It forecasts that North America import container volumes will grow 2% during both 2026 and 2027.
“However, up to 70% of US economic growth in 2025 may be driven by AI investments and the wealth effects of AI share price increases. Should the AI bubble burst, it could significantly hurt the US economy with spillover consequences for the world economy and container ship demand growth,” cautions Rasmussen.
BIMCO has included recycling of 750,000 teu capacity in its supply forecast for 2026-2027. It estimates that a recycling overhang of 1.8 million teu exists due to recycling during the past five years reaching only 272,000 teu. If recycling ends lower than its forecast, it expects that the shortfall will add to oversupply of capacity in the market.
Despite increased port congestion, capacity-weighted average sailing speed has year-to-date 2025 fallen to 14.7 knots from 14.8 knots in 2024. Speeds, however, remain elevated compared to the 14.4 knots in 2023. As more ships are delivered, BIMCO expects that carriers will slow ships down and has included a 0.25 speed reduction in its estimates for both 2026 and 2027. Should that not happen, supply could grow faster during both years.
Whilst its forecast indicates mostly stable market conditions, several uncertainties remain, BIMCO states. In particular, the possibility of a return to Suez Canal routings looms large over the market outlook. As other supply and demand risks also exist, the coming two years could thus end more eventful than its headline forecast suggests.
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