First six months of 2025 marking by uncertainty across supply chains

With our presence across all modes of global logistics and supply chain management, the U-Freight Group starts July with a summary of what has taken place in the first six months of 2025.

In ocean freight, the first half of 2025 saw strong cargo volumes, sharp volatility in freight rates, and persistent geopolitical disruptions, leading carriers to retool fleets and alliances while grappling with margin pressure.

The outlook for the second half of the year is continued volatility in spot rates shaped by tariff decisions and inventory trends.

If Red Sea tensions ease and trade routes return to normal, expect another round of rate softening.

Conversely, persistent supply gluts and geopolitical risk might support marginal rate stability.

Carriers will likely fine-tune capacity via blanking sailings, and sailing smaller vessels to maintain rate discipline.

In the air

In the air cargo arena, the year kicked off with strong volumes and elevated rates.

In summary, the first six months of 2025 brought elevated volatility in air cargo volumes and rates, driven by seasonal patterns, fleet dynamics, and especially sudden policy shifts on tariffs and de minimis rules.

In airfreight, the outlook for  the second half of the year suggests that policy risk remains high: Any further U.S. tariff shifts could disrupt trade lanes and air demand.

The sector remains sensitive to geopolitical and trade developments, with competitive tension between spot and contracted pricing strategies.

e-commerce logistics

In cross border trading, the first six months of 2025 was marked by strong export growth, accelerated digital customs reforms, and heightened scrutiny on low-value imports, alongside tentative progress on EU‑UK border facilitation and cross-border data cooperation.

The outlook for the second half is for continued investigation into digital customs systems to streamline flows and reduce friction.

Further EU–UK facilitation deals  could ease trade costs and paperwork — though the outcome remains uncertain.

Evolving global tariffs and trade policies (US/EU/UK) are likely to continue influencing trade volumes, customs complexity, and risk management behaviour.

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