Are container shipping rates set to fall?

The U-Freight Group, with our comprehensive portfolio of international container shipping services for both LCL and FCL import and export cargoes, note that the ocean and air freight intelligence platform, Xeneta has something to say about oceanfreight.

Whilst its data shows average spot rates from the Far East to US East Coast had increased 26% between 14th December and early January, the avoidance of strikes at ports on the US East Coast and Gulf Coast led it to predict that ocean container freight rate growth is now expected to slow or fall.

That view is also expressed by Vespucci Maritime, which notes that February 1st will see the new container shipping alliances come into effect, with carriers beginning to shift their vessels into their new service networks. The timing coincides with the seasonal demand slump after Chinese New Year, which falls on January 29th this year.

Under normal market conditions, we would see a large amount of blank sailings being announced but the new alliance phase-in makes the situation more opaque this time. It is difficult to both phase vessels into the new networks and at the same time manage blank sailings effectively.

Hence there is a risk that the carriers will prioritise getting their new alliance networks in place at the expense of managing the blank sailings as effectively as usual.

This will cause some short-term overcapacity problems in early February which could lead to temporary rapid drops in spot rates.

All in all shippers and forwarders must remain cautious, however, because it will not take much for freight rates to begin spiralling once again, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty about the Red Sea and the return of Trump to the White House, which could escalate the US-China trade war.

To read the complete articles click on the following links.

https://www.xeneta.com/news/ocean-container-shipping-rates-may-fall-after-deal-reached-to-avoid-port-strikes-on-us-east-coast-and-gulf-coast

https://www.balticexchange.com/en/news-and-events/news/guest-column/2025/potential-strike-and-network-changes.html

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