Geopolitics: Redrawing the world’s trade and shipping routes

A recent article suggesting that globalisation isn’t dead — it’s changing direction, on the Splash 247 website, certainly caught the attention of the U-Freight Group, with our portfolio of freight and logistics service that underpin global trade and globalisation.

The narrative that globalisation has collapsed under the weight of tariffs and nationalism misses the mark, says Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age.

Despite political tensions, global trade volumes remain near record highs and ports around the world are still bustling. What is occurring is not a retreat from global trade, but a reconfiguration of it.

The latest shift, Shearing argues, reflects a fracturing of the global economic system into competing blocs led by the United States and China. Rather than shrinking, trade flows are being rerouted. The transformation can be seen in supply chains such as mobile phones: five years ago, nearly 70% of U.S. imports in this category came from China; today, that figure has dropped to 25%, with India and Vietnam emerging as major new suppliers. Similarly, U.S. consumers are sourcing more goods from Vietnam, Mexico and India, while China is deepening trade ties with Russia and other developing economies.

This realignment is driven by geopolitics. Strategic competition now shapes trade decisions as much as economic efficiency. Goods linked to national security—such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and dual-use technologies—are being rerouted or duplicated to reduce dependency on rivals. Meanwhile, non-strategic goods like toys, textiles and household items continue to flow relatively freely. This fragmentation, known as “friend-shoring,” is benefiting nations seen as reliable partners, including Vietnam, India and Mexico, while pushing others into tighter alliances—Russia, for instance, with China.

For the shipping industry, the consequences are profound. Globalisation is not ending, but shipping routes are being redrawn to reflect new political and economic realities. Manufacturing relocations could even increase overall shipping demand as trade journeys grow longer and more complex. Yet volatility is rising: tariffs, sanctions or sudden diplomatic shifts can disrupt routes overnight. The smooth, borderless trade of the past has given way to an era where geopolitical power shapes every voyage. The challenge now, Shearing concludes, is not to lament the end of globalisation — but to navigate its fractured new form.

The complete article, which is well worth a read, can be found here:

https://splash247.com/how-geopolitics-is-redrawing-the-worlds-shipping-routes/

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