Global container trade lanes reshaped by cascading ships

Vessel capacity once absorbed by major Asia–Europe routes is now spilling into secondary trade lanes leading to global container shipping entering a new era of structural realignment.

With our strong presence in the global container shipping arena, this makes interesting reading for the U-Freight Group.

According to Sea-Intelligence, which has dissected global vessel capacity shifts, tracking more than 16,000 vessel transfers across 2024 and 2025, the data points to a notable evolution in the so-called “Cascading Effect” — the movement of tonnage from primary trade lanes to secondary routes — which entered a distinct new phase in the second half of 2025.

Sea-Intelligence says that while 2024 was dominated by capacity injections into the Asia-Europe trade to address the Red Sea crisis, those trades have now reached saturation, with excess tonnage spilling into secondary lanes.

It adds that net displacement in the second half of 2025, measured as inflow minus outflow of cascaded capacity, highlights clear structural changes in global trade patterns.

The Asia-Mediterranean lane, once a primary absorber of displaced Asia-North Europe capacity in 2024, is now actively cascading tonnage to other routes.

The Mediterranean–North America East Coast lane emerged as the leading net gainer in the second half of 2025, taking in a net of more than 127,000 teu.

This was largely driven by more than178,000 teu cascaded from Asia-Mediterranean, including 11 ultra-large vessels of 14,000–15,000 teu.

Meanwhile, the Asia–East Coast South America lane became the second-largest net recipient, absorbing a net of more than 112,000 teu.

These were primarily mid-sized vessels of 8,000–14,000 teu, cycled out of the main East-West lanes.

Crucially, 97% of these vessels did not redeploy to their original trade lanes, signalling a permanent structural adjustment.

Sea-Intelligence concludes that the surplus capacity initially triggered by the Red Sea crisis is now saturating peripheral trades, reshaping the global shipping network in a way that will reverberate well beyond 2025.

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