IATA reports air cargo demand down in March

With our strong presence in the expedited international airfreight sector, the U-Freight Group notes that IATA reports that the Middle East conflict resulted in a year-on-year fall in air cargo demand and capacity in March, while the post–Lunar New Year trade slowdown also affected business.

Data from IATA showed total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kms (ACTK), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025.

However, the cargo load factor (CLF) remained stable at 47.9%.

Earlier this month, Xeneta reported that global air cargo demand fell 3% year-on-year in March, while capacity supply was 6% lower year on year.

“Industry-wide cargo-tonne-kilometers declined by 4.8% year-on-year, reflecting one of the most complex operating environments in recent years,” commented the trade body.

“March was shaped by overlapping Chinese New Year distortions, escalating geopolitical instability in the Middle East, and higher fuel costs, all of which disrupted established traffic patterns.”
Jet fuel rose 106.6% year on year, reaching its highest level in more than 23 years. This pushed “cargo yields up 18.9% in a distinctly inflationary pricing environment” said IATA.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “The timing of the usual post–Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline. The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026.

“Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months.”

General trade conditions looked positive. Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year on year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion, and global goods trade rose by 8%.

Global manufacturing sentiment remained in growth territory in March, easing slightly from February. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.4. The PMI for new export orders was 50.1. The fact that both are above the 50-point expansion threshold signals positive conditions for air cargo demand, said IATA.

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